It seems that only recently New Year has been celebrated (as always, standing at sea with coconuts instead of glasses of champagne), and even January is almost over, you can sum up the New Year’s investments. The month began with the correction of global stock markets after a sharp fall in October – December 2018. Investors’ optimism was promoted by attempts by the United States and China to find a compromise solution to the trade imbalances. One of China’s recent proposals is to increase imports from the US by $ 1 trillion over 6 years. To do this without a restructuring of all imports of the Middle Kingdom is hardly possible. As a working option, they cite the refusal to import Russian oil in favor of shale oil from the States. No specific decisions have yet been made, but there is still time before the US deferment expires for the introduction of 25% duties on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, oil prices went up synchronously with the growth of stock indices. Futures for Brent has grown by 16.5% since the beginning of the year.
This allowed the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to resume the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. Nevertheless, for the time being there was a respite for the ruble, and in January it had already won back 3 rubles from the dollar, largely due to the very successful placement of OFZs on January 16. The Ministry of Finance not only placed 3 issues for a total amount of 35 billion rubles, the demand was 2 times higher than the offer. This indicates a good potential for further strengthening the ruble. Meanwhile, according to Rosstat, in 2018, the inflation rate in Russia was 4.3%. In connection with this, and also with regard to the active growth of prices that began with the new year (a factor in the increase in VAT and excise duty on fuel), forecasts of a new increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation appeared at the next meeting on February 8. To the positive for the Russian market should be attributed to the fact that so-called. Shatdaun in the United States, associated with the refusal of Congress to allocate funds for the construction of the wall on the Mexican border and has already led to the actual crisis in public administration, postpones consideration of anti-Russian sanctions for an indefinite period.
One of the main factors of ambiguity in the international market remains the practical implementation of the Brexit program. At the January 15 vote in the British parliament, an absolute majority rejected the plan, with the opponents having a preponderance over their supporters a record high in the entire history of parliament (432 and 202). The deadline for preparing the Brexit procedure is March 29, but no negotiations with the EU have been held, and experts predict a new referendum. The situation is becoming increasingly alarming for the European and world economy. Finally, the actual boycott of Huawei by the United States and NATO countries is a potential threat to the Chinese IT industry. The main manufacturer of Chinese telecommunications equipment is accused of espionage and a number of licensing violations. This is a very serious problem for the Chinese economy, and so is in far from the best shape.
On holidays I recommend reading new blog articles for reading:
- Defensive assets: what do they mean to the investor;
- Policy of quantitative easing in the economy;
- Sberbank Asset Management: mutual funds or myths ?;
- Russian bonds with amortization of debt.
Now about the statistics of my New Year investments.
|Tool||Beginning of the week||Weekend||Profit $||Income,%||Note|
|Individual investment account in Finam|
|IDGC of the Urals||944.5||965.2||20.7||2.2|
|Tinkoff Bank Shares||1070.0||1241.0||171.0||16.0|
|PAMM accounts Alpari|
Analysis of investments in December
I have been running this blog for over 6 years now. All this time I regularly publish reports on the results of my investments. Now the public investment portfolio is more than 1,000,000 rubles.
Especially for readers, I developed the Course for a lazy investor , in which I showed step by step how to organize personal finance and effectively invest my savings in dozens of assets. I recommend every reader to go through at least the first week of training (it’s free).
- Shares on IIS in Finam and securities in a non-public portfolio.
Due to the long holidays there were practically no significant events in the Russian market. One of the factors of growth in the value of the portfolio was the already mentioned January strengthening of the ruble.
In the last month of 2018, ALROSA sold products by + 38% more than in December 2017. In total, the growth in sales in 2018 was 6%. According to Finam’s analysts, ALROSA’s EBITDA margin remains exceptionally high and indicates an undervaluation of the company’s shares. The recommendation to “buy” remains with the goal of 120.9 rubles.
- Tinkoff investment
O. Tinkov continued to increase his stake in TCS Group Holing. During January, he and two other management representatives bought global depositary receipts from the market totaling more than $ 2.5 million, which contributed to the growth of the company’s stock .
According to information in the Washington Post, the US Federal Trade Commission, the FBI and other government organizations are investigating the distribution of Facebook personal data of several million users. In the case of irrefutable evidence of the company’s guilt, a record fine in history can be imposed on it with payment of compensation to each affected user up to $ 40,000. Considering their number, Facebook could face bankruptcy (in theory).
- Alpari Tools
There were no big surprises on the foreign exchange market, but the tone of the US Federal Reserve has become much more dovish as the American economy slows down. Since there is no certainty about a further increase in the rate, more and more factors indicate that this year only 1 increase can occur. On the other hand, there is no specifics from the ECB. As a result, traders are experiencing a shortage of fresh drivers for directional movement. In the Alpari portfolio of PAMM accounts, the next maximum yield was reached on the accounts of Intraday Stride (+ 212.8%), Merk-Pamm2 (+ 298.9%), Eternity (+ 1132.1%) and Stability Turbo (+ 518.3%) .
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has approved a new standard for protecting the rights of clients of forex dealers . This standard implies a mandatory explanation of the procedure for compensation to customers in the event of a dealer bankruptcy , as well as a procedure for filing complaints when their rights are violated. In addition, all dealers are now obliged to publish information about their membership in a self-regulatory organization (SRO), the structure of representative offices, etc.
Published results of the study of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, simulating different scenarios for future demand for Bitcoin. Contrary to skeptics, the authors of the study believe that Bitcoin has intrinsic value. This is an algorithm whose advantages include database decentralization and transaction protection. There will always be a demand for these features. As for the Bitcoin exchange rate to the rest of the cryptocurrencies, the reason for its sharp decline in the report is the almost simultaneous appearance of a huge number of altcoins, which led to the excess of supply over demand and a fall in the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market.
Anton, I would suggest that you take the price of each instrument in the portfolio (stock, pamm, bitcoin) conditionally for January 1, 2018 and January 1, 2019, as well as the difference, and all this is in a table for clarity. It would be interesting to see the annual statistics for each portfolio tool. The same could be done in months, not much only hemorrhoids in terms of copy-paste.
Where? There is only a schedule of profitability of IIS by months, and I wrote about the specific components of the portfolio. This is not exactly, not exactly what I would like to see. I would even be able to implement my own proposal, but it will probably be easier for you to find the 1st report for January 2018.
Very entertaining. The sums of all investments, including PAMMs, increased, with the exception of the crypt. But you said that in the amount of 2018 yielded 0% of income. Those. Did you increase your portfolio at the expense of some other means, or did you just decide to publish a part of the non-public?